Chaliand: Armenia and Russia Must Stand Together in Spite of Iraq War

Respected Strategist is Featured in Armenian Forum

Princeton, NJ (30 May 2003)—The occupation of Iraq diminishes the importance of Turkey to the United States, acknowledges Gérard Chaliand, one of the world’s leading authorities on geopolitics. It does not, however, diminish the importance of the Armenia-Russia alliance, he warns. Chaliand’s comments appear in the current issue of Armenian Forum: A Journal of Contemporary Affairs, released in late May.

In a wide-ranging conversation with the journal’s editor, Vincent Lima, Chaliand discusses the war and what it means for Iraq’s neighbors, including Armenia and Gharabagh. Making a vital point often neglected in Armenian political discourse, Chaliand underscores the importance of Armenia to Russia.

Chaliand has been a participant observer in numerous conflicts—from Africa to Afghanistan, from Vietnam to Kurdistan. He is the author of many books, including Revolution in the Third World (1977), Strategic Atlas: A Comparative Geopolitics of the World’s Powers (with Jean-Pierre Rageau, 1992), and The Art of War in World History (1994). His latest book is America Is Back: Les nouveaux césars du pentagone (with Arnaud Blin, 2003).

Turkey Defies the United States

On the eve of the war in Iraq, Turkey withheld staging rights from American forces seeking to mount a northern front against Iraq. In doing so, Turkey jeopardized its special relationship with the United States and, most immediately, a thirty billion dollar American investment in Turkey’s troubled economy. Why did it do so?

Lima suggests that the Turkish Parliament was being “admirably responsive to popular sentiment.” Also, as Turkey hopes to join European Union, it was being sensitive to the concerns of France and Germany, which opposed the war. Another possibility is that Turkey wanted to accompany American forces as they occupied northern Iraq, where Kurds enjoy autonomy. Perhaps Turkey withheld its permission as long as the U.S. refused to let the Turkish military come along, Lima conjectures.

Chaliand dismisses the notion that Turkey was concerned with European opinion: “Turkey has no other choice than to remain an ally of the United States.” He agrees, however, that the “United States was absolutely against any Turkish military involvement in northern Iraq.” Such involvement “would have created a war within the war in a situation that was already complex.”

Does the occupation of Iraq by the United States change things for Armenia and Gharabagh? Does it, for example, diminish the importance of Turkey to the United States? “Turkey will remain an important ally of the United States, though less important than yesterday,” Chaliand asserts. Thus, for instance, “United States air bases in Iraq will lessen the importance of the Incirlik base in Turkey.”

Lima suggests that this diminished importance takes pressure off Armenia. It creates new opportunities for the Armenian lobby in the U.S. to press Turkey to lift the blockade of Armenia and open the border. Chaliand does not address the question, but he warns against an overly heavy reliance on the United States.

Russia Needs Armenia

Armenia’s “alliance with Russia is important to Russia because the southern Caucasus is the key to the northern Caucasus (Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan, etc.) It protects the northern part of the Caucasus up to Stavropol',” says Chaliand. “On the other hand, what is Armenia for the United States? It has no oil like Azerbaijan, and is less than willing to act against Russian interests like Georgia.

“While it is wise to have good relationships with both Russia and the United States, it is Russia, I think, that would do something to protect Armenia if needed.”

The conversation covers other important ground as well. Lima and Chaliand discuss the prospects for the establishment of a Kurdish state as well as Turkey’s chances of admission to the European Union.

Lima recalls that in August 2002, writing in Le Monde, Chaliand was able to say with assurance that the United States will invade Iraq in April 2003. Will the U.S. invade Iran or Syria, as the saber rattling in the Bush administration insinuates? No, says Chaliand, because “Iraq is enough of a burden for now.”

“Turkey, Armenia, and the War in Iraq: A Conversation” appears in the Spring 2003 edition of Armenian Forum: A Journal of Contemporary Affairs. The journal is available by calling toll-free 1-888-927-6369 (from the United States or Canada), by sending E-mail to forum@gomidas.org or by writing to Armenian Forum, PO Box 208, Princeton NJ 08542.