Harvard Political Scientists Discuss Caspian Oil and Karabakh's Future

Harvard Political Scientists Discuss
Caspian Oil and Karabakh’s Future

Princeton, N.J. (6 April 1998)—It is conventional wisdom by now that Azerbaijan has become the darling of the West because of its vast oil reserves, and that international speculation around this oil has an enormous impact on Karabakh’s future and Armenia’s as well.

Harvard political scientist Arthur Martirosyan disagrees. In a lengthy conversation with Robert Krikorian, also of Harvard University, Martirosyan takes issue with each element of this conventional wisdom. The conversation is featured in the [Spring 1998] issue of Armenian Forum: A Journal of Contemporary Affairs. A copy of the 128-page publication may be obtained free of charge by calling toll-free (888) 9-ARMEN-9. [Free sample issue offer expired 31 July 1998.]

Martirosyan argues that it is in fact Karabakh’s position that has an enormous impact on the development of Caspian oil. He points out further that the vastness of Caspian oil reserves is uncertain, and that Azerbaijan’s claims on some important Caspian oil fields are hotly contested. For some Western officials, Martirosyan notes, oil may not be the reason for courting Azerbaijan, but a cloak for other strategic considerations.

Citing United States State Department pronouncements, Martirosyan observes that "oil is often fetishized as the magic solution that will resolve all the conflicts and boost economic development and consequently democracy in the region. Is it really that simple? Even if the reserves are as vast as some claim, it will take no more than thirty years to suck that lake dry. What happens then?"

In the interim, Martirosyan points out, oil money may cause a disequilibrium among the countries of the region; Azerbaijan, with "an army trained on oil profits" may have an "irresistible temptation to resolve conflicts by force.

"It is exactly this prospect that some Western diplomats and State Department officials use as an argument to frighten Armenia. They say that this is the time for Armenians to make a deal with Azerbaijan, that if Armenia does not make the deal right now, Azerbaijan will soon get very rich and then it will be time for Azerbaijani revanchism.

"But will the resumption of hostilities and war be in the interests of the oil companies in the region? I do not think so. . . . Their interests will be the first to suffer if and when fighting occurs. In other words, the Azerbaijani interest to solve the problem militarily will clash with the interests of oil companies."

Martirosyan concludes that Azerbaijan and its allies have a strong interest in establishing a lasting, stable peace as soon as possible. "I think that unfortunately Azerbaijanis have a problem understanding that fact, since each president coming to power in Azerbaijan has engaged in chauvinist rhetoric about how they are going to get Gharabagh back by force.

"First it was to be by military force, and that failed. Now it is to be by oil diplomacy, and the expectation they have created amongst their population is that once Azerbaijan gives its oil to Western companies, the West is going to give Gharabagh back to Azerbaijan: oil companies through their governments will put serious pressure on Armenia, and Armenia will be forced to give Gharabagh back. That is fundamentally wrong, and it is not going to happen that way. True, there has been a lot of pressure on Armenia, and we know some results of that pressure, but Armenia is in no position to give Gharabagh back to Azerbaijan."

Martirosyan stresses that "until the Azerbaijanis come to understand that they have to negotiate not with Yerevan but with Stepanakert—even if they consider it their own territory, they still have to negotiate with the people there—the impasse will continue."

Martirosyan argues that Azerbaijanis "are not going to be in a constructive mood" until after their presidential elections later this year.

In the insightful, informative conversation, which spans 26 pages and includes two lucid maps, Martirosyan and Krikorian discuss a variety of issues concerning the relationship between Caspian oil and Karabakh’s future: Armenia’s foreign policy, Turkish-Armenian relations, factors determining United States policy and Russian policy in the region, and pipeline routes leading from the Caspian to the open sea.

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